Snake oil

I know. You don't subscribe (however passively) to the SJH e-mail for its renowned coverage of politics and national security. But as much as I'd like to write about the fall TV season—let's just say I like my bionics more dependent on pneumatics and na-na-na-na-na sound effects—other conversations seem to keep taking precedence.

So: When you hear the pundits and presidential candidates talking about an Iraq "exit strategy," muzzle your laughter and think about this.

Two years ago, the U.S. military had 106 "forward operating bases" in Iraq. Fourteen of those were what the Pentagon called "enduring" bases. (The term "permanent" had become politically inexpedient.) The plan—since signed into law, in case you missed it—was to consolidate those 14 into a handful of "mega-bases."

Indeed, five large, self-sufficient bases that will accommodate 50,000 to 100,000 troops are now in various stages of development. How does that fit our exit strategy? Writer Jim Holt clarifies matters in the October 18 issue of the London Review of Books:

Iraq has 115 billion barrels of known oil reserves. That is more than five times the total in the United States. And, because of its long isolation, it is the least explored of the world's oil-rich nations. A mere two thousand wells have been drilled across the entire country; in Texas alone there are a million. It has been estimated, by the Council on Foreign Relations, that Iraq may have a further 220 billion barrels of undiscovered oil; another study puts the figure at 300 billion. If these estimates are anywhere close to the mark, U.S. forces are now sitting on one quarter of the world's oil resources. The value of Iraqi oil, largely light crude with low production costs, would be of the order of $30 trillion at today's prices. For purposes of comparison, the projected total cost of the U.S. invasion/occupation is around $1 trillion.

Who will get Iraq's oil? One of the Bush administration's "benchmarks" for the Iraqi government is the passage of a law to distribute oil revenues. The draft law that the U.S. has written for the Iraqi congress would cede nearly all the oil to Western companies. The Iraq National Oil Company would retain control of 17 of Iraq's 80 existing oilfields, leaving the rest—including all yet to be discovered oil—under foreign corporate control for 30 years.

Until recently, I was skeptical about the idea Alan Greenspan expressed in his new book: "I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil." Maybe it wasn't always, but it sure seems to be now. And it's hard to see how any future president is going to change course. (Sorry, Ron Paul.)

How about a little troop movement to St. John's this weekend? Our weekly basketball exercise kicks off at 8:00 a.m. Saturday, as usual. Please let me know if you will or will not be playing this week.